According to a US think tank, Russian troops are digging trenches and fortifying their positions in eastern Kherson in preparation for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.
After analyzing satellite imagery, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded that the Russian military believes Ukrainian forces will eventually cross the Dnieper River and conduct counter-offensive operations in the region’s east.
According to the ISW, this could jeopardize “all critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to the mainland.”
The assessment comes after Russia announced its withdrawal from the western portion of the Kherson region on November 9 following weeks of Ukrainian advances, and as Russia moved to evacuate hundreds of thousands of its residents.
After the war began, Kherson was the first major region to fall to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces. It was Russia’s most significant military achievement of the conflict, thanks in part to its strategic location and proximity to Crimea.
Kherson is one of four territories illegally annexed by Putin in September after sham referendums.
Maxar Technologies satellite images dated November 15 showed, Russian forces have been digging trench lines and concentration areas in eastern Kherson since early October in “obvious preparation” for the withdrawal from the Dnieper River’s west bank and Kherson city.
Russian troops, according to the think tank, are preparing to defend in depth or to conduct operational or strategic delay operations.
“Russian forces clearly do not expect to be able to prevent Ukrainian forces from crossing the river, and the Russians are not prioritizing defensive positions to prevent such a crossing,” ISW experts said.
“The Russian military is laying the groundwork for a long-term defence in eastern Kherson Oblast, which could allow the establishment of a strong Ukrainian presence on the Dnipro River’s eastern bank.”
According to satellite imagery, Russian troops prioritized digging trenches and erecting dragon’s teeth anti-tank defenses along GLOCs that connect Russian forces on the Dnieper River’s eastern (left) bank with southeastern rear areas in Kherson region and Crimea, as well as with eastern rear areas around Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast.
According to the think tank, Russia’s military is establishing “layered lines of defence” and beefing up fortifications on and around the Kinburn Spit, indicating that the leadership views the prospect of a Ukrainian counteroffensive as a “serious threat.”
The Kinburn Spit, which is connected to the Kinburn Peninsula, was captured by Russian forces in June and is one of the last occupied territories in southern Ukraine. According to a statement issued on November 18 by Ukraine’s Operational Command South, the Kinburn Spit area has been the “focus of the enemy’s life force, weapons, and equipment.”
According to the command’s Facebook page, Ukrainian armed forces destroyed a portion of the sandy area.
Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern command said, “hostilities” are currently taking place there.
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“This is very difficult work, especially given the weather conditions, geographic location, and suggestions that Mykolaiv Oblast be included in the ‘grain corridor,'” she said.
Russia’s foreign ministry has been contacted for comment by Newsweek.
Source: Newsweek
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